Trump’s Second Term: A Lame Duck with Real Power?

Hilda Bowden - 14/03/2025

Before Trump won the 2024 election, it was widely acknowledged this would

be his second and final term. This immediately placed him as a 'lame-duck president' — a

leader serving without the prospect of re-election. Traditionally, the term applied to

those who had not won re-election or vice presidents who inherited the role. However,

the 22nd Amendment, ratified in 1951, cemented the two-term limit and gave rise to the

modern understanding of the lame-duck presidency. This limit has been seen as weakening

presidential influence; Alexander Hamilton argued that term limits risk reversing key

achievements, while Thomas Jefferson warned of excessive executive power. The two

perspectives have remained relevant throughout US politics.

Second terms have historically been difficult for many presidents. Scandals such as Nixon's

Watergate and Clinton's impeachment highlight the challenges that can arise during this

period. Trump, however, faces a different reality. Unlike many presidents before him, he can

start with a clean slate, taking advantage of the public's short-term memory by attributing

issues to the previous administration. Consequently, there is a distinct lack of accountability;

he doesn’t have to confront the court of public opinion until the midterm election, and even

then, he will be halfway through his term and already focused on identifying his successor.

As a result, Trump will likely avoid accountability for his election promises since he can’t

run again. Once his term ends, he can withdraw from political life, leaving any

unresolved issues — big or small — for the succeeding president.

Since his January 2025 inauguration, Trump has aggressively pursued his policy agenda. By

February 20, 2025, he had signed more than 70 executive orders — the most within a

president’s first 100 days in the past 40 years. Notable moves include major cuts to the

Department of Education, the rescinding of 78 Biden-era executive orders, the termination of DEI initiatives, the imposition of major tariffs on Canada and China, and the pausing of

federal grants and loans. This is far from an exhaustive list, and it hasn’t even touched on

Trump’s involvement in the peace ‘negotiations’ to end the Ukraine-Russia War. This rapid

pace demonstrates Trump's determination to capitalise on his political capital before it wanes.

This approach reflects what some analysts term 're-election hubris' — a tendency for leaders returning to power to push an ambitious agenda. Trump's actions may stem from his belief that voters not only rejected Biden but also actively supported his return to office. Therefore, rather than the electorate simply indicating that they didn’t want one candidate, they were also voting for the other. However, one must question whether this is a good use of political clout. By March 2025, his disapproval rating had risen from 41% to 45%, with growing concerns about economic instability. This raises questions about whether his aggressive tactics are undermining his long-term influence. Presidential advantages are famously finite and fade quickly.

Nevertheless, public opinion is one thing that Trump can afford to sacrifice. His political

position is bolstered by a Republican trifecta controlling the presidency, Senate, and House,

granting him greater freedom to pass significant reforms with minimal opposition. He has

also strategically filled key roles with loyalists, further insulating himself from internal criticism.

Charles Jones argues that second-term presidents typically face diminished power, regardless of prior electoral success. Even Ronald Reagan, who won 59% of the popular vote, struggled with lame-duck status. Yet Trump's influence remains unusually strong, with Republican allies aligning themselves closely to secure future political opportunities.

The true test of Trump’s post-election power may emerge during the 2026 midterms. While

he currently wields considerable influence, any Republican losses could weaken his ability to

push sweeping reforms. Whether he continues to act as a powerful force in American politics or ultimately assumes the traditional lame-duck role remains to be seen.

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4. Jones, Charles O. 1989. " Governing When It's Over: The Limits of Presidential Power." The Brookings Review. Accessed March 11, 2025. https://www.jstor.org/stable/20080113.

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